Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
Of course. I assumed that was obvious—didn't fit into 140. Take state averages; look at electoral college.
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This is essentially what
@SamWangPhD does, right? But still derives a probability based on certain assumptions.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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There is no way to do it without making assumptions. In your proposal you're just assuming zero correlation. Unlikely correct.
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I buy some state errors may well be correlated. But multiple sources of error, so may not be as important overall.
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