Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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Or a set of 50 binary outcomes each time... More helpful?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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So, there's other ways to validate overall model, right? EV projection, popular vote projection, 50 state outcomes/margins.
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@cwyers I am not sure how we'd adjudicate what people are arguing over—does Trump have 20 or 30% chance? The snake is what we should check. - Show replies
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