Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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Yep. Binary outcome=no way to judge the model. Poll avgs are plenty good info. No need to obsess over 538 topline.https://twitter.com/andrewjperrin/status/795457139229782016 …
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Or a set of 50 binary outcomes each time... More helpful?
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also, margin of errors that
@CBSNews@ABC news are lies. They're only a part of the error. The sampling prthttp://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/6565788 … -
I'll say
@NBCNews +@SurveyMonkey +@MysteryPollster deserve praise for not showing that misleading stat!
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