Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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Important point, partic b/c outcome is binary. OTOH strong causal mechanism helps.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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But each of these elections had 50 state elections incorporated in it, etc.
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yup, totally different to, say, 11 nationwide referendums.
End of conversation
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