Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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I'd question the whole statistical approach. NYT: "Trump's chances equivalent to 38-yard-FG being missed". It's just daft.
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Here's some good discussion. I don't think many people understand what the top of the 538 page actually represents.https://twitter.com/BenLillie/status/795455631423602688 …
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Yep. Binary outcome=no way to judge the model. Poll avgs are plenty good info. No need to obsess over 538 topline.https://twitter.com/andrewjperrin/status/795457139229782016 …
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Similarly, 'probabilities' of winning or losing an NFL game at any time during the contest seem totally bogus to me.
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