Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?
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wow. You said that better than I did after 6 days of trying lol
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i) 10,000 sims not 20,000 ii) I don't think anyone claims they're definite probabilities as opposed to best estimate/guideline.
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It's 10,000 for each of their 2 models, I believe.
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Doesn't any model that yields probabilities have to model those rare events (to understand polling error prob. for calibration)?
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@HerbieLewis There is a bigger question here: can you model very very rare events based on very very few cases, aka what 538 does? - Show replies
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The question I wonder is how they come up with the variance values that define the span of that distribution.
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Coming up with the means seems straightforward, or at least not to involve much guesswork.
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It would be really interesting to read something about this written by knowledgeable experts who can lay out the key issues...
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Classic Monte Carlo simulation. No real alternative
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