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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016

    Um, poll Twitter. State errors may be correlated. More interesting Q: can we model a rare event based only on 11 previous cases—as 538 does?

    6:29 PM - 6 Nov 2016 from North Carolina, USA
    • 15 Retweets
    • 35 Likes
    • Grassy Noel Rose Mauro Pwn All The Things Yuval Engel nathanjurgenson Tim Scharks 🌐🧦🍕 Greg Minshall priya joseph gchpaco
    11 replies 15 retweets 35 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        I'd rather discuss the philosophical underpinnings of running 20K simulations of a rare event & taking output distribution as probabilities.

        7 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
      3. Lee M. Williams‏ @leemwilliams 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        wow. You said that better than I did after 6 days of trying lol

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Greg Minshall‏ @gregminshall 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        11 is probably pretty small, esp if the 11 existing data points "look" normal.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Ben Lillie‏ @BenLillie 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Quanta took a crack at a similar question, ended up concluding the probabilities aren't defensiblehttps://www.quantamagazine.org/20161026-election-forecasting-puzzle-solution/ …

        1 reply 10 retweets 18 likes
      3. Lisa Simpson's REAL Magic Bear-Repelling Rock‏ @FERALROBOTS 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @BenLillie @zeynep

        assumption seems to be that large phenomena are irreducible.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Rob Beauchamp‏ @robeauch 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Might be argued that's it's actually 550 previous cases (50 states/11 elections). (Caveat: I may not know what I'm talking about.)

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @robeauch

        No, the presidential election a very specific case. It really is tough to model, not sure we can do it like this.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. gchpaco‏ @gchpaco 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        YES! my core discomfort with the 538 model is it is v. complex w/ tons of free variables, not much data. Vast danger of overfitting.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @sanderwagner

        Yep, if you have physics. We have no laws of nature for societies.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Nathan Kalmoe‏ @NathanKalmoe 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        How is n=11 different for Upshot, Pollster, PredictWise, Princeton, & Daily Kos, & why doesn't that justify 538's lower confidence?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @NathanKalmoe

        I don't think we have a means to judge which presidential election predictor model is better. They all lean Clinton.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies

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