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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nathan Gilliatt‏ @gilliatt 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior

      Don’t I see that actual number in the table? It’s a whole table of percentages.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Sarah Kendzior‏Verified account @sarahkendzior 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @gilliatt @zeynep

      Yes, the percentage is literally in the table.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      Yes but one cannot compare tiny groups (Stein vs Clinton/Trump voters who support Duke) because of margin of error.

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      I will see if I can hunt a longer article on this. The issue isn't there are percentages.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      See calculation. LA has 3 million reg voters; sample you cite is 12. ~Margin of error=+-29% https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/ …pic.twitter.com/DliBrDVDtH

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      Now, ordinarily, you wouldn't even try with such a tiny number but let's go with it to see what it means.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      That number you cite, 2 out of 12 (17%) means -12 to 46%, at generous 95% confidence level. Zero is within margin.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      So you couldn't say this number is different from zero. Therefore can't compare to anything else.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      Of course, nobody would even bother with margin of error with 2 out of 12 in a sample of 500 polled from 3 million.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      So the problem isn't the study is flawed. Study is just fine. You always have tiny groups in samples.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

      Problem is drawing any conclusion—including their existence when margin of error includes zero—from tiny subgroup.

      1:05 PM - 31 Oct 2016
      • 1 Retweet
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      5 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        1. Nathan Gilliatt‏ @gilliatt 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior

          So, should original study (of which I have seen precisely one table) use asterisks instead of values in those cells?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Nathan Gilliatt‏ @gilliatt 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior

          If the data don’t support reporting the value, then the value prob shouldn’t be in the paper, either? Is that fair?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @gilliatt @sarahkendzior

          No, data is fine. It's the subgroup comparison. I found reasonable explanation.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/very-bad-analysis-of-a-2008-email-is-donald-trumps-new-excuse-for-why-hes-losing/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Nathan Gilliatt‏ @gilliatt 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior

          Overall, this exchange is confirming that Twitter is good only for sharing links and not most discussions.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @gilliatt @sarahkendzior

          More characters would help! I responded because something erroneous had gone Twitter viral so I ended up seeing it.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Sarah Kendzior‏Verified account @sarahkendzior 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @gilliatt

          Thanks for the many tweets, Zeynep. 😀 I'll check them out after I finish this piece on white supremacist terrorist attacks

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

          Which, by the way, is why pollsters "oversample"—see more here:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/very-bad-analysis-of-a-2008-email-is-donald-trumps-new-excuse-for-why-hes-losing/ …

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Oct 2016
          Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior @gilliatt

          So hope this is clearer!

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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