...using a national poll, they either have an oversample (to get useful numbers) or they should stay far away from making the comparison.
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Replying to @zeynep
TIL I learned people will even resist the basic fact that polls have a margin of error that gets (much) larger as the sample gets smaller.
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Replying to @zeynep
You seem to be conflating
@sarahkendzior tweeting a flawed study with the study itself.1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes -
Replying to @gilliatt @sarahkendzior
The study isn't flawed. Tiny subgroup *comparisons* as Sarah did is flawed. The study is fine.
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Replying to @zeynep
The point is,
@sarahkendzior didn’t do the subgroup comparisons. She posted an image with a table from the report, including %.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @gilliatt @sarahkendzior
No, she did the subgroup comparisons in her tweet. The study is fine.
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Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior
Don’t I see that actual number in the table? It’s a whole table of percentages.
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Yes, the percentage is literally in the table.
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Replying to @sarahkendzior @gilliatt
Yes but one cannot compare tiny groups (Stein vs Clinton/Trump voters who support Duke) because of margin of error.
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I will see if I can hunt a longer article on this. The issue isn't there are percentages.
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See calculation. LA has 3 million reg voters; sample you cite is 12. ~Margin of error=+-29% https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/ …pic.twitter.com/DliBrDVDtH
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Now, ordinarily, you wouldn't even try with such a tiny number but let's go with it to see what it means.
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That number you cite, 2 out of 12 (17%) means -12 to 46%, at generous 95% confidence level. Zero is within margin.
1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes - Show replies
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