Pollsters oversample small groups (minorities; Stein voters, etc.) because margin of error in small samples makes the numbers worthless.
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Replying to @zeynep
So, if you have 12 Stein voters, you cannot do any subsample analyses. Remember, it's a sample, operating on central limit theorem, etc.
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Replying to @zeynep
Additional, but separate, question is representatives of sample. That depends on how close to random sample was. Different issue.
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Replying to @zeynep
In general, if someone makes subsample analyses within small groups—urban female Hispanic voters with masters degree compared with... etc.+
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Replying to @zeynep
...using a national poll, they either have an oversample (to get useful numbers) or they should stay far away from making the comparison.
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Replying to @zeynep
TIL I learned people will even resist the basic fact that polls have a margin of error that gets (much) larger as the sample gets smaller.
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Replying to @zeynep
You seem to be conflating
@sarahkendzior tweeting a flawed study with the study itself.1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes -
Replying to @gilliatt @sarahkendzior
The study isn't flawed. Tiny subgroup *comparisons* as Sarah did is flawed. The study is fine.
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Replying to @zeynep
The point is,
@sarahkendzior didn’t do the subgroup comparisons. She posted an image with a table from the report, including %.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @gilliatt @sarahkendzior
No, she did the subgroup comparisons in her tweet. The study is fine.
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Small subsamples have huge margins of errors; you you cannot statistically compare them. Literally, that's it.
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Replying to @zeynep @sarahkendzior
Sure, I’m not arguing the stats, but the subsamples are in the table. Source appears to be the study.
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What ppl have a problem with is the misinformation in her tweet. Not the study itself
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End of conversation
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