Trump's going to win white men, and white non-college, no matter what.
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This is a definite fear but I suspect that Trump has made too many people too disgusted with him to forego voting.
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His base is solid, and I don't know if they will turn out as much but most aren't changing their minds, in my view.
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@ftrain aka the "toy model" problem in social science. With big data, very attractive to try to "toy model" as first step but hahahahaha.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I think, unlike (my understanding of) Brexit, the anti-Trump voters are very deeply committed now, want to settle this score.
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Aka why organizational strength matters. I thought Trump was viable a R nominee in Sept. 2015, but he'd probably lose general by March 2016.pic.twitter.com/QfZwemgGsy
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Let me put it this way. A Trump with organizational chops absolutely has a chance to be President of the United States with a bit of luck.
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Brexit was never forecast to be a "blowout" and last week or so had "leave" ahead. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/ …
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true but that’s really hard to organize, not impossible but would need discipline and some luck
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If a party put half the TV ad money they burn into organizing, they could..
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