The way modeling has increased—rather than decreased—horse-race coverage seems to be through faux precision. The race is remarkably stable.
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Replying to @zeynep
Presidential elections are rare events, so modeling has real limits. They are also first-past-the-post so unsettling it would take a lot.
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Replying to @zeynep
IF Trump isn't looking likely in PA, it would take a momentous shift in the race for him to have a shot. Is there one? Then check the polls.
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Replying to @zeynep
With a rare, first past-the-post event like POTUS election, percentage distributions of large number of simulations is .. faux precision.
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Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted David Parry
This is exactly the problem. I don't begrudge anyone's clicks, but we're drowning in irrelevant conversation.https://twitter.com/academicdave/status/784410029503811584 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2 replies 6 retweets 25 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Yasmine 🌝
Straightforward. No PA, then needs a YUUGE event shifting the race for Trump to have a shot. See one? Check polls.https://twitter.com/aminabeyotana/status/784411749785088000 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
Also, modeling started as a reaction AGAINST unjustified punditry horse-race coverage when likely outcome was clear. Now, the opposite.
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Replying to @zeynep
Same thing that makes pundits create drama through faux horse-race coverage—that 538 railed so much against—now drives it: attention/clicks.
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Replying to @zeynep
Under a different economic model for media, horse-race reports are once a week: "Folks, still stable; sooo here are candidate positions..."
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Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nitin Borwankar
Tragedy is SO MUCH REAL STUFF NEEDS DISCUSSION. Just doesn't have the easy narrative tension of horse race coverage.https://twitter.com/nitin/status/784415920491900928 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2 replies 4 retweets 12 likes
Piece I wrote in 2012, siding with 538 against faux pundit drama. I had hoped better models=more policy. hahaha me. https://www.wired.com/2012/11/why-predictions-and-statistical-models-are-necessary-and-good-for-democracy/ …pic.twitter.com/EPqQFRZzxt
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Replying to @zeynep
Do you think you'll be writing another article reflecting on the rise of model horserace narratives? I'd love to read it.
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