IF Trump isn't looking likely in PA, it would take a momentous shift in the race for him to have a shot. Is there one? Then check the polls.
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Replying to @zeynep
With a rare, first past-the-post event like POTUS election, percentage distributions of large number of simulations is .. faux precision.
4 replies 4 retweets 17 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted David Parry
This is exactly the problem. I don't begrudge anyone's clicks, but we're drowning in irrelevant conversation.https://twitter.com/academicdave/status/784410029503811584 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2 replies 6 retweets 25 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Yasmine 🌝
Straightforward. No PA, then needs a YUUGE event shifting the race for Trump to have a shot. See one? Check polls.https://twitter.com/aminabeyotana/status/784411749785088000 …
zeynep tufekci added,
6 replies 2 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
Also, modeling started as a reaction AGAINST unjustified punditry horse-race coverage when likely outcome was clear. Now, the opposite.
2 replies 5 retweets 20 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
Same thing that makes pundits create drama through faux horse-race coverage—that 538 railed so much against—now drives it: attention/clicks.
7 replies 11 retweets 34 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
Under a different economic model for media, horse-race reports are once a week: "Folks, still stable; sooo here are candidate positions..."
3 replies 3 retweets 18 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
As somebody who reads/listens to lotta 538- the metabolism does feel weekly to me. And the writers get to explore, not break news.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @bluechoochoo
It's the frequency with which the model gets updated, the sense of precision, and how people follow it that's the problem.
1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
Hm. Yeah, it is hard to resist visiting live stuff. But as w/me looking at Google Analytics or stocks, I blame consumer, not tool :D
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
The tool and the consumer are intertwined, though. 538 was absolutely right to rail against punditry when it began.
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