The way modeling has increased—rather than decreased—horse-race coverage seems to be through faux precision. The race is remarkably stable.
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Replying to @zeynep
Presidential elections are rare events, so modeling has real limits. They are also first-past-the-post so unsettling it would take a lot.
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Replying to @zeynep
IF Trump isn't looking likely in PA, it would take a momentous shift in the race for him to have a shot. Is there one? Then check the polls.
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Replying to @zeynep
With a rare, first past-the-post event like POTUS election, percentage distributions of large number of simulations is .. faux precision.
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Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted David Parry
This is exactly the problem. I don't begrudge anyone's clicks, but we're drowning in irrelevant conversation.https://twitter.com/academicdave/status/784410029503811584 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2 replies 6 retweets 25 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Yasmine 🌝
Straightforward. No PA, then needs a YUUGE event shifting the race for Trump to have a shot. See one? Check polls.https://twitter.com/aminabeyotana/status/784411749785088000 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
Also, modeling started as a reaction AGAINST unjustified punditry horse-race coverage when likely outcome was clear. Now, the opposite.
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Replying to @zeynep
Same thing that makes pundits create drama through faux horse-race coverage—that 538 railed so much against—now drives it: attention/clicks.
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Replying to @zeynep
Under a different economic model for media, horse-race reports are once a week: "Folks, still stable; sooo here are candidate positions..."
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Replying to @zeynep
As somebody who reads/listens to lotta 538- the metabolism does feel weekly to me. And the writers get to explore, not break news.
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It's the frequency with which the model gets updated, the sense of precision, and how people follow it that's the problem.
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Replying to @zeynep
Hm. Yeah, it is hard to resist visiting live stuff. But as w/me looking at Google Analytics or stocks, I blame consumer, not tool :D
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Replying to @bluechoochoo
The tool and the consumer are intertwined, though. 538 was absolutely right to rail against punditry when it began.
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End of conversation
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