Weird how better modeling which produces clarity on how little uncertainty there is in the race produced MORE horse-race coverage, not less.
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Replying to @zeynep
There is literally two events worth checking the polls once, about one week after event, in last two months: Clinton's pneumonia & debate.
1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
The way modeling has increased—rather than decreased—horse-race coverage seems to be through faux precision. The race is remarkably stable.
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Replying to @zeynep
Presidential elections are rare events, so modeling has real limits. They are also first-past-the-post so unsettling it would take a lot.
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Replying to @zeynep
IF Trump isn't looking likely in PA, it would take a momentous shift in the race for him to have a shot. Is there one? Then check the polls.
2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
With a rare, first past-the-post event like POTUS election, percentage distributions of large number of simulations is .. faux precision.
4 replies 4 retweets 17 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted David Parry
This is exactly the problem. I don't begrudge anyone's clicks, but we're drowning in irrelevant conversation.https://twitter.com/academicdave/status/784410029503811584 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2 replies 6 retweets 25 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
538 started out as a down out noise, has become media business producing tons of noise
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
It's a fascinating case study.
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