Weird how better modeling which produces clarity on how little uncertainty there is in the race produced MORE horse-race coverage, not less.
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This is exactly the problem. I don't begrudge anyone's clicks, but we're drowning in irrelevant conversation.https://twitter.com/academicdave/status/784410029503811584 …
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538 started out as a down out noise, has become media business producing tons of noise
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It’s false certainty. Somewhat similar problem to RE CDO modeling. The fans precision is just poor interpretation.
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Don't know that much about CDO modeling; am thinking of looking into similar topics/models.
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1/ Not to mention uncertainty/poll error is apparently larger than what they are trying to measure. Even at Election Day. So there
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2/ there is no point. They can’t be precise enough even on 11/9 to properly predict outcome (b/c prob distrib can’t be specified).
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