Weird how better modeling which produces clarity on how little uncertainty there is in the race produced MORE horse-race coverage, not less.
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Presidential elections are rare events, so modeling has real limits. They are also first-past-the-post so unsettling it would take a lot.
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IF Trump isn't looking likely in PA, it would take a momentous shift in the race for him to have a shot. Is there one? Then check the polls.
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1: I've been saying for a year that the outcome of this race was not in the least bit uncertain—see my TL eight tweets down
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2: I also think voters will break heavily to Clinton in these final weeks. I expect she gets 320-347 EVs.
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How so? Doesn't the swing from Hillary +5 to +8 to +1 then back to +5 suggest a lot of volatility? Particularly with undecideds?
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Political modeling has interesting analogy to RE CDO modeling. Relies on correlation of interstate voting that’s unmeasrble.
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tv news is cherry picking polls to make it appear race is see-sawing, rarely using poll averages. They need material for 30+ days.
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