Trump is winning FL with his Hispanic numbers; Ohio while fighting with Kasich; and North Carolina even now?
https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/759485879010332676 …
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Not many polls have come out since the DNC, I think just one. So, I would expect this to shift over the week.
Also, one thing I had hoped with 538 was less pretense of a "close race" when it's not (remember Obama/McCain?) making room for substance 
The polls-plus model (which 538 views as the most canonical) is 60/40. The polls-only model is swamped by the GOP convention bounce.
Weird to see such a huge divergence between this and @UpshotNYT.
Their projection accounting for demographics and convention bumps isn't quite so even:pic.twitter.com/QIwzBYNMCj
.@AriSchulman That one makes more sense. And if I had to put thumb on scale, it's Clinton because Trump lacks org. Wildcard events aside.
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