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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 26 Jul 2016

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Benjamin Wittes

    This. Faux precision in not scientific, it's scientism, just like that Trump "2%" odds he had. He meant "unlikely".https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/757982368779075588 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Benjamin WittesVerified account @benjaminwittes
    I have a new pet peeve: the faux precision with which @FiveThirtyEight predicts elections that are many months away.
    10:02 AM - 26 Jul 2016
    • 23 Retweets
    • 61 Likes
    • Matt Hackett skry Neil Gaughan David Senra Todd Vision loki maelorin 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈 (they) Steve McCarty jamshid Fh
    11 replies 23 retweets 61 likes
      1. End Of Objects‏ @endofobjects 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        is it not just a percentage of simulation runs one way or other?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Hector A. Torres‏ @hector_a_torres 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Hector A. Torres Retweeted Hector A. Torres

        Re-posting here, because I am curious as to other's opinions on this.https://twitter.com/_HectorTorres/status/757984839454699520 …

        Hector A. Torres added,

        Hector A. Torres @hector_a_torres
        Replying to @hector_a_torres @benjaminwittes @FiveThirtyEight
        %x.x seems like faux precision, but is consistent with modeling. Aren't arbitrary ranges just...arbitrary?
        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Corey S. Powell‏ @coreyspowell 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        The absence of error bars or any kind of statistical context is absurd. Trump's odds right now probably look more like 46.8 ± 40%

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Modeling is fine, but it's not like random sampling (which we can't even do well anymore) where you have precise error. And this early? Meh.

        2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Wouldn't mind it with some explanation, presented as a range, no digit after the period FFS, with some info on how model performed in past.

        6 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Justin D. Long‏ @justindlong 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        @benjaminwittes @FiveThirtyEight a Bayesian approach. How would you do it diff?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. dcg1114‏ @dcg1114 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Elections too infrequent, polling history too short, for anything like that level of confidence.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Frank Pasquale‏ @FrankPasquale 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        @benjaminwittes in quantified society, numerical estimates treated as more valuable than narrative--no matter how contestable. Sad!

        1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
      3. Harry Heymann  🥑‏ @harryh 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @FrankPasquale @zeynep @benjaminwittes

        Is it wrong to say that Google is worth 508.93B today? Or that the cubs have a 21% of winning the WS?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
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      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 26 Jul 2016

        I think they should present not numbers but visual ranges that are blur accordingly for this kind of models.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Iyam F'real‏ @ogfreel 26 Jul 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        If you scroll down herr they do have ranges for 80% confidence. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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