Why are Democrats so divided? @zeynep on the digital disruption of the party. https://newrepublic.com/article/133776/split#split13 … #TheSplit
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Replying to @followlori
IMO
@zeynep overstates the technological cause. At least as much about the democratization of primaries mid-20th C.@followlori1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @AndrewJPerrin @followlori
My argument is that the technological affordances allow fund-raising and messaging; makes threats credible.
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Replying to @zeynep @followlori
I get that. But the outcome is overdetermined- threats seemed credible in prior years w different tech regimes.
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Replying to @AndrewJPerrin @followlori
I thought Dean was the first harbinger threat. Obama actually won against the "invisible primary" candidate.
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Replying to @zeynep @followlori
Jackson '88, T. Kennedy, Kennedy '68, McGovern '72.
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Replying to @AndrewJPerrin @followlori
So, Jackson: no internet; fell short. 68-72 is the previous shake-up that got the "invisible primary" response.
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Replying to @zeynep @followlori
yup. And Dean: Internet, fell short. Sanders: Internet, fell short. Variable can't explain a constant.
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Replying to @AndrewJPerrin @followlori
My narrative: Dean: harbinger of new mode. Obama: proof of concept. Sanders: a 74-year old Vermonter got so far.
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So the interesting question is 2020 and 2024. I would expect insurgent campaigns to try again.
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Replying to @zeynep @followlori
of course they'll try again. Question is whether Internet is the key causal variable. I say no.
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Replying to @AndrewJPerrin @followlori
I think insurgents now have money & messaging & coordination tools unlike before. We shall see with more cases!
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End of conversation
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