Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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More useful to describe the impact of an outcome than its probability.
@zeynep @dtchimp@cookedinwine@deaneckles@NateSilver538 -
1/Probability is just as important, or too much worry on low likelihood events.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Agree not helpful at start (especially -58% lower bound), but better chance to update with data.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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