Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
August 2016? Much more to be said. July 2015? Too early for overly precise forecasts in percentages.
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Completely agree extremely precise extreme forecasts need extremely large confidence intervals.
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But most pundits in the political sphere are "expert" in nothing beyond self-bloviation. (TM)
End of conversation
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