Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
Is it useful when you have so little data, and little assurance your model works?
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August 2016? Much more to be said. July 2015? Too early for overly precise forecasts in percentages.
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Completely agree extremely precise extreme forecasts need extremely large confidence intervals.
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