Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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Sites like 538 were giving him 2% odds (how do you even compute that?) I don't think that's.. useful.
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I don't think numerical probabilities assigned in August were much use. Analysis that took mechanisms+
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..into account gave you more insight. Human societies don't work like chemistry projects.
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Replying to @zeynep
I think that's an uncharitable reading of what probability forecasts aim at and assume.
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Replying to @deaneckles
I'm not a great fan of overly-precise forecasts on low frequency events.
1:12 PM - 18 May 2016
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