Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
..into account gave you more insight. Human societies don't work like chemistry projects.
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I think that's an uncharitable reading of what probability forecasts aim at and assume.
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I'm not a great fan of overly-precise forecasts on low frequency events.
End of conversation
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