For low frequency events like presidential elex, "models" are another version of conventional wisdom, condemned to miss changing dynamics.
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Replying to @zeynep
I had explained why
@NateSilver538 got#Bra vs#Ger so wrong. Same reasons are why models got 2016 nomination wrong.https://medium.com/message/learning-from-natesilver538s-omg-wrong-bra-vs-ger-prediction-9d47fa0611e#.mve8k2903 …2 replies 4 retweets 11 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
For a single event, does 65/35% actually look like a major failure?
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Replying to @deaneckles @NateSilver538
Well, the result was 1-7. For soccer, that's a bit like an top NFL team playing a mediocre college team.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
Would be a good ex. for you if they predicted games won. Recall close to even odds can just mean lots of uncertainty.
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Replying to @deaneckles @NateSilver538
Yeah, but my point is Brazil had, on paper, solid defense but did not. Data was misleading, and experts all knew.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
"experts all knew" Weren't the betting odds of that extreme outcome really long? http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/07/germany-brazil-world-cup-blowout-bet-odds …
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Replying to @deaneckles @NateSilver538
The blowout was absolutely long odds, but Brazil defense without Neymar? I think numbers hid reality there.
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
Hardly extreme odds in favor of Germany here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2121387-brazil-vs-germany-betting-odds-world-cup-prediction-match-preview …
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I don't think a 65/35 prediction when markets had Germany at 7-4 odds is the right example to make your point.
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I think betting markets and weaknesses of analytics and (the wrong kind of ) pundits have a feedback cycle.
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