I'm a firm believer in empirically-grounded analyses but the real art & science is knowing what kind of data supports what kind of argument.
The blowout was absolutely long odds, but Brazil defense without Neymar? I think numbers hid reality there.
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Hardly extreme odds in favor of Germany here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2121387-brazil-vs-germany-betting-odds-world-cup-prediction-match-preview …
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I don't think a 65/35 prediction when markets had Germany at 7-4 odds is the right example to make your point.
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