Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
Yeah, but my point is Brazil had, on paper, solid defense but did not. Data was misleading, and experts all knew.
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A US electoral expert, for ex., would raise eyebrows at, say, poll with too white likely voter scenario. Similar.
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Predictive analytics is better with high frequency events with loads of data. Presidential elections are rare.
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"experts all knew" Weren't the betting odds of that extreme outcome really long? http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/07/germany-brazil-world-cup-blowout-bet-odds …
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The blowout was absolutely long odds, but Brazil defense without Neymar? I think numbers hid reality there.
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