Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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Best empirical method is triangulation—requires analyzing strengths of different data & continuity of dynamics, i.e data AND area expertise.
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bringing in area expertise is NOT nate538's thing eg: climate science
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For a single event, does 65/35% actually look like a major failure?
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Well, the result was 1-7. For soccer, that's a bit like an top NFL team playing a mediocre college team.
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