Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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I had explained why
@NateSilver538 got#Bra vs#Ger so wrong. Same reasons are why models got 2016 nomination wrong.https://medium.com/message/learning-from-natesilver538s-omg-wrong-bra-vs-ger-prediction-9d47fa0611e#.mve8k2903 … -
Best empirical method is triangulation—requires analyzing strengths of different data & continuity of dynamics, i.e data AND area expertise.
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The problem is that "hard scientists" believe that anything that isnt "hard science" is unsanctimonious heterodoxy.
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From what I have read on the site, and their general attitude, I dont think this is a problem at 538 however.
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And poll-based modelling can at best reflect accurate present expectations of future events. Not a science of event prediction.
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It is possible to predict movement - eg using PVI.
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