Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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For low frequency events like presidential elex, "models" are another version of conventional wisdom, condemned to miss changing dynamics.
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I had explained why
@NateSilver538 got#Bra vs#Ger so wrong. Same reasons are why models got 2016 nomination wrong.https://medium.com/message/learning-from-natesilver538s-omg-wrong-bra-vs-ger-prediction-9d47fa0611e#.mve8k2903 … - Show replies
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