Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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Once again, proof how it can be done.
@NormOrnstein from Aug. 2015, explaining clearly why the models may not work. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/maybe-this-time-really-is-different/401900/ … -
For low frequency events like presidential elex, "models" are another version of conventional wisdom, condemned to miss changing dynamics.
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given enough data, and enough flimsy interpretation methods, statistics effectively become opinions.
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that is to say, you can find statistics to support your opinion, (almost) no matter what that opinion is.
End of conversation
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