Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …
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Or what approach, or what combination of approaches to the problem
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Models based on prior data or great, until when they are not, and it's your "pundit" that that will alert you to that. The "model" cannot.
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this is a good point, except how do we discern when the pundit is better informed? The pundit thinks s/he is but how sure can we be?
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We needed more smart, empirical pundits to make sense of 2016. Not horse-race coverage, through data models or "source close to" narratives.
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Once again, proof how it can be done.
@NormOrnstein from Aug. 2015, explaining clearly why the models may not work. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/maybe-this-time-really-is-different/401900/ … - Show replies
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