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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016

    Or, maybe not enough like a pundit, since "models" are least useful when dynamics of low frequency events change.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ …

    7:51 AM - 18 May 2016
    • 5 Retweets
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    • Egemen Şentin D Roka Ergun Scott Timcke Brian F. templeton ferrari III Seán Keating 🚲 Jp Caitlin 🌐 Todd Pierce
    3 replies 5 retweets 18 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Polls said Trump was popular, but Herman Cain was also popular. Difference was changed dynamics. Smart "pundits" caught that, models cannot.

        1 reply 4 retweets 4 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        I'm a firm believer in empirically-grounded analyses but the real art & science is knowing what kind of data supports what kind of argument.

        3 replies 10 retweets 10 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Randy Adis‏ @RandyAdis 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Well said & I agree 100%. The fact that the experts failed to see the myriad of exceptions that #Trump represented is astonishing.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Ramiro‏ @ramirogoncalez 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep

        Excelentes Análises . Eu aprendo todo dia com você. Parabéns !

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016

        Hence the conundrum. Ideally, area experts judge models & data—means you can't be jack of all trades.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016

        I'm for the keep careful score part. People who advocated for Iraq war should never talk of war, for ex.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep @deaneckles @NateSilver538

        But it's not hindsight bias. A number of us have been pointing out Trump viability since August/Sept.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016

        That would need to be house effects. Still not many data analytic shops that combine area experts+data.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep @deaneckles @NateSilver538

        But I find mechanism analysis much more compelling than prediction. I get the desire for prediction+

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016

        Yes, and you could tell over the longer run but 1% loss is not a failure of understanding mechanism.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 May 2016
        Replying to @zeynep @deaneckles @NateSilver538

        I think pundits also greatly exaggerate what's truly competitive, when it's not. US pres elex 2012.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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