Polls said Trump was popular, but Herman Cain was also popular. Difference was changed dynamics. Smart "pundits" caught that, models cannot.
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I'm a firm believer in empirically-grounded analyses but the real art & science is knowing what kind of data supports what kind of argument.
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Well said & I agree 100%. The fact that the experts failed to see the myriad of exceptions that
#Trump represented is astonishing.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Excelentes Análises . Eu aprendo todo dia com você. Parabéns !
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Hence the conundrum. Ideally, area experts judge models & data—means you can't be jack of all trades.
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I'm for the keep careful score part. People who advocated for Iraq war should never talk of war, for ex.
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But it's not hindsight bias. A number of us have been pointing out Trump viability since August/Sept.
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That would need to be house effects. Still not many data analytic shops that combine area experts+data.
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But I find mechanism analysis much more compelling than prediction. I get the desire for prediction+
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Yes, and you could tell over the longer run but 1% loss is not a failure of understanding mechanism.
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I think pundits also greatly exaggerate what's truly competitive, when it's not. US pres elex 2012.
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