I kept linking to research on Tea Party that showed beltway operative reading was wrong, and Trump version had legs.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/702510812825522180 …
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Replying to @zeynep
There is also history. History is not based on polls but the best of it is a deeply empirical field. Yes, expertise needed to pick the good.
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Replying to @zeynep
What's wrong with narrative journalism isn't the narrative part—it's that the narrative is often based on talking to a small, closed circle.
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Replying to @zeynep
Poll questions are often based on what the small closed circle deciding the "narrative" thinks should be asked. Feedback cycles bring error.
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Replying to @zeynep
Be multi-method. Triangulate. Go deep. Learn history. Don't just talk to your friends. Look for data. Cast a skeptical eye. Synthesize.
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Replying to @zeynep
Human affairs are messy. Anyone predicting too much with certainty will get it wrong. In my view, understanding is better than predicting.
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Replying to @zeynep
I don't like horse-race coverage: not empirical enough; often doesn't lead to understanding. I wish it were an asterisk, not the main story.
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Replying to @zeynep
We should not excoriate people for wrong predictions. Human affairs are messy. But there are mistakes and there is blatant lack of judgment.
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Replying to @zeynep
So we need to distinguish the two, which is why it's good to discuss why people got something so wrong. /end
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Replying to @zeynep
This talk about "what went wrong" is on a wrong track. Horse-race journalism makes for poor analysis. Me after Iowa:pic.twitter.com/cBxP5tryHm
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Of course ignoring polls is a bad idea—but empirically-grounded, smart analysis is much better than whatever you write about 2% differences.
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