Data vs traditional journalism again? I'm no fan of the horse race coverage but there *are* ways to be empirically deeper besides polls.
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Replying to @zeynep
Surveys are great—I use them—but ask anyone who works with them. They are limited tools. You *do* need deeper analytic understanding. +
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Replying to @zeynep
But the current "here's who won and lost this week" coverage is not deeper analytic understanding. Pile it all up not much there there. +
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Replying to @zeynep
Look at this
@NormOrnstein piece from August 2015. Not bombastic, not over-predicting. It's deep, grounded analysis. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/maybe-this-time-really-is-different/401900/ …3 replies 14 retweets 28 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I kept linking to research on Tea Party that showed beltway operative reading was wrong, and Trump version had legs.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/702510812825522180 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
There is also history. History is not based on polls but the best of it is a deeply empirical field. Yes, expertise needed to pick the good.
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Replying to @zeynep
What's wrong with narrative journalism isn't the narrative part—it's that the narrative is often based on talking to a small, closed circle.
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Replying to @zeynep
Poll questions are often based on what the small closed circle deciding the "narrative" thinks should be asked. Feedback cycles bring error.
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Replying to @zeynep
Be multi-method. Triangulate. Go deep. Learn history. Don't just talk to your friends. Look for data. Cast a skeptical eye. Synthesize.
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Human affairs are messy. Anyone predicting too much with certainty will get it wrong. In my view, understanding is better than predicting.
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Replying to @zeynep
I don't like horse-race coverage: not empirical enough; often doesn't lead to understanding. I wish it were an asterisk, not the main story.
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Replying to @zeynep
We should not excoriate people for wrong predictions. Human affairs are messy. But there are mistakes and there is blatant lack of judgment.
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