Data vs traditional journalism again? I'm no fan of the horse race coverage but there *are* ways to be empirically deeper besides polls.
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Be multi-method. Triangulate. Go deep. Learn history. Don't just talk to your friends. Look for data. Cast a skeptical eye. Synthesize.
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Human affairs are messy. Anyone predicting too much with certainty will get it wrong. In my view, understanding is better than predicting.
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