In other words, predictions market predict nothing. (They reflect that day's take on conventional consensus).https://twitter.com/rich1/status/694547503371390976 …
@jonathanstray Huge swings in response to changes in conventional wisdom after news. It's... like regular punditry.
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@zeynep yep. but that doesn't mean a better prediction is available! what we need is comparative work, e.g. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2660628 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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