In other words, predictions market predict nothing. (They reflect that day's take on conventional consensus).https://twitter.com/rich1/status/694547503371390976 …
@derekbruff How is it different than moving with the rest of the world in response to a test? For prediction, I expect more than reaction.
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@zeynep It's reactive, yes, but that was a pretty significant type of information not available until last night. -
@derekbruff My question remains: what does this market add that everyone else doesn't know and understand at this point? - Show replies
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@zeynep I would expect a prediction process to course-correct when that kind of new information becomes available. -
@derekbruff For it to be a useful "prediction" market, it should do something that anyone else can't do by scanning headlines for 30 secs. - Show replies
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