In other words, predictions market predict nothing. (They reflect that day's take on conventional consensus).https://twitter.com/rich1/status/694547503371390976 …
@derekbruff I didn't say polls. I said conventional consensus (which has feedback cycle). Going from 32% to 54% overnight isn't prediction.
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@derekbruff I think you could crowd-source/market some things. These prediction markets aren't it. They're just responding to CW/events. -
@zeynep In this case, I see it as responding to new information--Trump's first ever actual election. No one knew how that would go.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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