In other words, predictions market predict nothing. (They reflect that day's take on conventional consensus).https://twitter.com/rich1/status/694547503371390976 …
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@zeynep Prediction markets seem to a better job predicting than polls, at least.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@zeynep They seem to be a useful mechanism for leveraging the wisdom of crowds, convention or unconventional.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@zeynep From James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds":pic.twitter.com/f0wbl8czoi
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@derekbruff I didn't say polls. I said conventional consensus (which has feedback cycle). Going from 32% to 54% overnight isn't prediction. - Show replies
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