Instead of calling them prediction markets, they should be called "betting for pennies" for fun. Nothing wrong, but that's not prediction.
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@zeynep betting for sure, but done correctly its also taking advantage of perception bias
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@zeynep or reflect a small collective delusion, Trump is still way overvalued, in part because his supporters way overvalueThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@zeynep which is to say, not really a consensus at all . . . -
@academicdave Conventional consensus.. What people think they should think, not a consensus among everyone.
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@zeynep But the IEM prediction had Rubio in a strong 2nd since it opened last month. Was that conventional consensus? -
@derekbruff Yes. Absolutely. - Show replies
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@zeynep how do you get that out of this news? -
@jonathanstray Huge swings in response to changes in conventional wisdom after news. It's... like regular punditry. - Show replies
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