Imagine if two years ago, the narrative was "Sure, the novel coronavirus is more transmissible than SARS-1, but thankfully it's also less severe!"https://twitter.com/MDaware/status/1477660022788313092 …
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Yeah, and I guess that’s even more damning
"Learn from China" from the WHO's Dr Aylward --- totally ignored. They over did the quarantine by Western standards - would we tolerate that zero Covid? - but had negative pressure rooms in weeks constructed. We saw them in full PPE ... "not invented here" "not researched here"pic.twitter.com/UKpCPatWwx
I don't think that's entirely fair. Showing airborne transmission is a dominant mode of spread (as opposed to droplet) is extremely difficult and the paradigmatic dichotomy we had in place didn't help things either.
Though either way we botched it. Many of the same measures (filtration inc masks and circulation) work for both. Also saying despite logic that a mask that didn’t meet the tested N95 fit conditions was as good as no mask was an enormously costly mistake
If anything pre/asymptomatic transmission also fits selective empricism. The lone ship doctor at Diamond Princess—ordinarily attending to hangovers etc.—had concluded presymptomatic transmission was driving cases by February 9, 2020. Epi papers from China stated it outright, too.
I also remember the “no evidence that infection will confer any immunity” in Spring/Summer of 2020. I guess hitherto study and science of other viruses and all the other human HCoV wasn’t evidence? Weirdly atheoretical stance.
It’s really just Bayesian reasoning. People’s priors are always “too strong” when they turn out to be wrong. But when you’ve got huge sets of interconnected prior beliefs, this is bound to happen for some hypotheses. It’s not ideal, but looking for something to blame is weird.
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