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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Ben Cowling‏Verified account @bencowling88 20 Dec 2021

      Ben Cowling Retweeted David Owens

      From time to time I'm asked about the risk of transmission from airport to quarantine hotel (1+ hour in a small and sometimes crowded shuttle bus), but this is within a few hours of having a sample taken that tests negative for COVID by PCR (on arrival at the airport)https://twitter.com/DrDOwens/status/1472923664119386123 …

      Ben Cowling added,

      David Owens @DrDOwens
      Do the new quarantine rules mitigate risk of community spread? A: No If arrival in HK is anything to go by the Day 5 changeover will be over engineered with numerous touch points for potential contact with non-quarantined staff: PB staff, drivers, hotel staff, ? others 1/2 pic.twitter.com/cplIy7oNn4
      Show this thread
      2 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Ben Cowling‏Verified account @bencowling88 20 Dec 2021

      If transfer to the quarantine hotel on Day 4/5 is within a few hours of a sample being collected that tests negative, I would say it's low risk. If it's 24 hours after the sample was collected that tests negative, I think the risk here increases substantially

      3 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    3. David Owens‏ @DrDOwens 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @bencowling88

      Ben. I see 2 issues: 1)Risk of infection between quarantined individuals: minimal community risk. 2)Risk of transmission to non-quarantined worker: even if low probability, potential high community risk in ‘zero risk’ strategy

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    4. David Owens‏ @DrDOwens 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @DrDOwens @bencowling88

      Regardless two community transfers within incubation window must by definition increase community risk compared to one transfer over same time. I can’t see benefit of 4 days in PB v D 1-4 in DQH exceeding risk of community spread during changeover

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    5. Ben Cowling‏Verified account @bencowling88 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @DrDOwens

      Yes there’s definitely an increased risk associated with the second transfer. Also I wonder whether Omicron incubation periods are even shorter than Delta(?)- if so, majority of risk is going to be in first few days, and we’ve already seen one DQH transmission of Omicron

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    6. Jasnah Kholin - 8964 - ACAB -  💉 💉‏ @wanderer_jasnah 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @bencowling88 @hkdemonow @DrDOwens

      generation interval being really short still looks to me the best explanation for the near-vertical epi curves we're seeing, so, likely, yeah (imho).

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @wanderer_jasnah @bencowling88 and

      Not sure how the math could even work without? Kind of boggles the mind as is.

      7:36 PM - 20 Dec 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Stephen Westwood Ben Cowling Jasnah Kholin - 8964 - ACAB - 💉💉
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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