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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @Merz @jljcolorado and

      "I have not found data to substantiate that the conversational distance is higher outdoors than outdoors." And that's just silly.

      4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @Merz @jljcolorado and

      What this tells me is that rather than talking forthrightly about uncertainties in your interpretation, you are more than willing to simply assert that they are not uncertainties.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @Merz @kprather88 and

      I have talked a lot about uncertainties. Have looked for such data for a long time, and I have observed the distance myself, and not seen a clear difference. But let's say that there is 10-20% more distance. Would that cut transmission x20? That's not plausible.

      2 replies 0 retweets 46 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @jljcolorado @Merz and

      Off the top of my head, why would ventilation matter indoors if it were mainly droplets, as ballistic particles, same behaviour. Why would plexiglass—which would block droplets—be associated with *higher* rates of infection, as predicted from aerosols, via ventilation dead zones.

      2 replies 8 retweets 72 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

      Why would HEPA filters work? They aren't between you and the person you are speaking with, should be irrelevant for droplets. How could there be so much overdispersion with a mainly droplet, thus, ballistic trajectory, particles?

      3 replies 5 retweets 51 likes
    6. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

      I'm not arguing against aerosol transmission, Zeynep, as you'd know if you'd read the thread. I'm persuaded that aerosol transmission occurs and that it is a significant component of total transmission. But the evidence that transmission is only or mainly aerosol is weak.

      7 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @Merz @jljcolorado and

      I don't think there is any way to avoid "mainly" aerosol transmission and fit the known facts and physics. The indoor/outdoor difference in epi, the ventilation matters indoors data, HEPA filter role, the overdispersed dynamics... Other mainly airborne diseases look like this.

      1 reply 3 retweets 45 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @Merz and

      Alternative would require some evidence, and a framework that fits known facts. I am open to one, including one where aerosols aren't predominant or "mainly." But none has come up, and I've been looking, either from the data or as even a "for example" framework.

      1 reply 1 retweet 26 likes
    9. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

      The indoor/outdoor difference is an absurdly weak argument.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez‏Verified account @jljcolorado 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @Merz @zeynep and

      I beg to differ, if you look at the physics, both that and the impact of ventilation are impossible to explain with ballistic droplets.

      3 replies 3 retweets 58 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
      Replying to @jljcolorado @Merz and

      Indeed. Gravity is the same indoors and outdoors, the difference can be this big if floating particles rather than ballistic ones are driving transmission. Sunlight can matter, but as Jose says, basic science of it says it can't be that big. I repeat: open to a theory that fits.

      3:13 PM - 20 Dec 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 32 Likes
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      4 replies 2 retweets 32 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

          You're wrong about the sunlight, Zeynep. Jose started with the claim that inactivation takes 5-30 minutes. Then it was 90% inactivation at 5 minutes, then 3. That puts the half life well below a minute, a figure reported in multiple papers.

          3 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        3. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @Merz @zeynep and

          As for gravity, yes, it's the same indoors and outdoors. But outdoors people spend a lot less time face to face. There are reasonable arguments for predominantly aerosol transmission. It baffles me that anyone would focus on this particular one. It's incredibly weak.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

          Need a theory of observed epidemiology that fits physics, virology, mitigations and their results. I've yet to encounter one on it being mainly droplets—close contact being important fits both theories, but little else does. (Where is all the close contact outdoors transmission?)

          2 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
        3. Joe‏ @twitskeptic 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

          Has it ever occurred to you that there just isn't enough evidence to decide? The over certainty of some of the covid social media influencers drives me crazy. I guess you don't get a lot of followers when you say "we just don't know yet."

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam squires‏ @adsquires 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

          If sunlight was the explanation, there would still have been a load more evening outdoor super spreading events

          2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
        3. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @adsquires @zeynep and

          Sunlight inactivates virus regardless of whether it's in aerosol or droplets.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam squires‏ @adsquires 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado and

          I *think* Bryan bzdek / Jonathan Reid in Bristol found small differences in stability in trapped levitated droplets. But I'd also be surprised if major difference - RNA still same basic chemistry, and that would be the main photo damage, no?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 20 Dec 2021
          Replying to @adsquires @zeynep and

          That, and oxidative damage to unsaturated lipids in the envelope.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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