Jesse Bloom had this thread based on mutation scanning on November 25th, even before what we thought would be named Nu was named Omicron. (I think like a day or so after the South African scientists warned us and shared the genome?). Nailed it, too. Great science, delivered fast.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085 …
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Also, I wish we’d call this an antibody evading variant. It’s not really fully evading our vaccines. More breakthroughs and re-infections, sure. But that’s absolutely not like being back in March of 2020. We have vaccines. We understand Covid is airborne. We have drugs that work.
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I know it’s uncomfortable but there’s still uncertainty to what will happen in the United States or in Europe—or in other places. I think South Africa data has taken some of the worst-case scenarios off the table, but a whole lot of unknowns remain and many options are possible.
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So much discourse around “is it mild”—not even coherent, conflating intrinsic virulence with immunity. But health-care crisis looks dangerous even if small percent is severe: that can be a big number in a huge wave. HCW already exhausted, plus many will test positive.
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I know President Biden will address the nation on Tuesdy. I would like daily press briefings from the CDC, and weekly updates from the President. It’s okay to say “here’s what we don’t yet know.” People need frequent updates, explanations, and a sense of the plan, no?
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Replying to @zeynep
I think this would be disastrous. A deluge of information people don't understand with daily live coverage.
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Replying to @RadioFreeTom
Right now people are filling in the vacuum with social media. That’s not better. People who don’t care will tune it out anyway. People who do, need info. Twice a week then. There needs to be an authoritative voice.
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Replying to @zeynep
They don't need info, they need a basic message of "vax and boost." The rest is noise and will only provide material for daily recaps on cable that will scare the shit out of people without really informing them about anything.
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Replying to @RadioFreeTom
I don’t think that’s right. Huge number of vaccinated & even boosted people will have breakthroughs. Simultaneously. We’ll run out of PCR tests. No rapid tests are available. Booster appointments are into January. Quarantine protocols won’t work. Hospitals may run out of staff.+
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Replying to @zeynep @RadioFreeTom
We just learned the vaccine for under fives was not immunogenic. So they will remain unvaccinated for a while more—especially bad for infants. Schools are closing, what’s the childcare plan, at a minimum? Masks are still not upgraded—the market is flooded with counterfeits.
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This needs a plan beyond “get vaccinated and get boosted.” A wave is coming—and we may get lucky but nobody knows for sure if we will. Triage mode needs leadership. Lots of things may need changing if middle scenarios happen—not at all ruled out.
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Replying to @zeynep @RadioFreeTom
All correct. We absolutely need a plan and leadership. But given the media (and the populace!) these days what good will daily reports do? It’ll just be whipped into some worse-than-no-info frenzy.
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