Huh. Delta’s threat was clear by end of May, from UK data and India. Omicron is developing fast, but thanks to South Africa we got a very early warning—and antibody evading variant of some sort was discussed a lot before then because that’s what the other human coronaviruses do.https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1472009383886393348 …
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We just learned the vaccine for under fives was not immunogenic. So they will remain unvaccinated for a while more—especially bad for infants. Schools are closing, what’s the childcare plan, at a minimum? Masks are still not upgraded—the market is flooded with counterfeits.
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This needs a plan beyond “get vaccinated and get boosted.” A wave is coming—and we may get lucky but nobody knows for sure if we will. Triage mode needs leadership. Lots of things may need changing if middle scenarios happen—not at all ruled out.
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Of *course* there will be breakthroughs. I'm expecting it any day. But telling us this once a day will accomplish... what, exactly?
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All the things you've warned of will happen. But there's no *plan* for that. This was baked into the cake once millions of nutballs decided not to get vaccinated. This day was pre-programmed the minute we swerved away from vaccine mandates and trusted people to be adults.
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Don’t mind Tom. He’s convinced he knows everything about Omicron NPIs because he once wrote a book on trusting the experts.
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Mostly, that chapter in the book was about how people demand complete safety and concrete answers that experts can't provide because we've become a nation of children.
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A friend of mine whose husband just tested positive in New York told me places there were quoting to her a turnaround for tests of 7-10 days. (She wound up taking a home test she’d been saving.)
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That makes the tests useless, as you well know, but on some level, who cares? It seems like many of the forecast problems of a massive omicron surge in a high-seropositivity area come from quarantine rules rather than from the disease.
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