Huh. Delta’s threat was clear by end of May, from UK data and India. Omicron is developing fast, but thanks to South Africa we got a very early warning—and antibody evading variant of some sort was discussed a lot before then because that’s what the other human coronaviruses do.https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1472009383886393348 …
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I mean, yes, there were a few virologists writing op-eds in the New York Times as late as end of July denying that evidence was clear that Delta was more transmissible. (They blamed human behavior instead). But I don’t think that was representative of the general tone.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Bloom Lab
Jesse Bloom had this thread based on mutation scanning on November 25th, even before what we thought would be named Nu was named Omicron. (I think like a day or so after the South African scientists warned us and shared the genome?). Nailed it, too. Great science, delivered fast.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Also, I wish we’d call this an antibody evading variant. It’s not really fully evading our vaccines. More breakthroughs and re-infections, sure. But that’s absolutely not like being back in March of 2020. We have vaccines. We understand Covid is airborne. We have drugs that work.
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I know it’s uncomfortable but there’s still uncertainty to what will happen in the United States or in Europe—or in other places. I think South Africa data has taken some of the worst-case scenarios off the table, but a whole lot of unknowns remain and many options are possible.
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So much discourse around “is it mild”—not even coherent, conflating intrinsic virulence with immunity. But health-care crisis looks dangerous even if small percent is severe: that can be a big number in a huge wave. HCW already exhausted, plus many will test positive.
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Replying to @zeynep
I'm not sure if we will have good predictive data on Omicron to compare to the US until it hits E. Europe. Since on both an age & vaccination rate adjusted basis that is where many of our rural & conservative counties are. And, that is where most of our mortality is coming from.pic.twitter.com/yg94G65Ngx
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Agree, though maybe they will get data from us. The current bellwethers aren’t comparable enough, but Eastern Europe is.
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Replying to @zeynep
Even if Omicron is milder in terms of mortality but results in higher transmission & hospitalization rates, it could cause the pot to boil over with regard to hospital capacity, which would consequently raise mortality rates due to insufficient treatment / care options.
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