Bottom line we are far from having evidence that severity is low enough to make this not a worry at the societal level, especially with already-stretched hospitals. Evidence that vaccines, especially when boosted, offer protection against severe disease is more consistent.
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Marc Lipsitch Retweeted
Already learning from the responses, thank you. Two sets of data suggesting modest contribution of "incidental" SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses among hospitalizations, one in Tshwane, Gauteng, SA https://twitter.com/enjoyingthewind/status/1472329401585045518?s=20 …
Marc Lipsitch added,
This Tweet is unavailable.2 replies 15 retweets 89 likesShow this thread -
Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Criostal Ó Conghaile
And one in London, UKhttps://twitter.com/cripipper21/status/1472328298025869314?s=20 …
Marc Lipsitch added,
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Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Prof. Christina Pagel
which shares this https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471900266811244547?s=20 …. A constant proportion of hospital admissions over time that are incidental SARS-2 findings vs. admitted for COVID is indeed consistent with similar severity per infection to the past variants, as
@chrischirp notes.Marc Lipsitch added,
Prof. Christina PagelVerified account @chrischirpHosp admissions by primary diagnosis show increase in *both* admissions for Covid and more incidental admissions (e.g. trauma or caught covid while in hospital for something else). This is consistent with no evidence that Omicron milder. Critical care already v busy. 13/18 pic.twitter.com/3lhVwG9Y4UShow this thread13 replies 22 retweets 117 likesShow this thread -
This presentation from yesterday is illuminating https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=e4Y2sXkt-cw … ht to a responder whom I can't find any more, twitter fail...
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Several lines of evidence here suggesting a lower hospitalization proportion than in previous waves, limited to first 25 days. Caveats 1) this is growing faster, so higher proportion of recent cases makes bias (missing not-yet-hospitalized) worse even when compare first 25 days
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2) the proportion vaccinated is going up, as is the proportion previously infected, so a more immune population. So hard to compare but declining in-hospital severity measures here as in Discovery Health are hopeful signs.
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Replying to @mlipsitch
I think given its age structure and high seropositivity from prior outbreak+infection, South Africa could only give us the signal to *really* worry, but not to relax. Asymmetrical in its ability to inform us. Denmark and UK, similar age pyramid but healthier and more vaccinated.+
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Replying to @zeynep
agree re age, though they have had numerous admissions in older age groups. Re seropositivity, less sure; we have high seropositivity too though more from vaccines
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Replying to @mlipsitch @zeynep
Bubba Karras Retweeted Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬
Data controlling for age:https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465?t=AQuD7ARFZlce_bieIsoCcA&s=19 …
Bubba Karras added,
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 @michaelzlinFinally, what we've been waiting for: age-controlled data on Omicron severity, courtesy SA health ministry. Across all ages, deaths among hospitalized pts are 2/3 lower in Omicron wave. If more mild cases are admitted, this # goes down, but doesn't seem likely that's the reason pic.twitter.com/BRDY8BQyCZShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Yeah, it’s encouraging. But early on, looking at Milan and Wuhan, I was thinking NYC is screwed (and very frustrated we weren’t acting). Now, I at South Africa and I think, okay, no signal for alarm from there, but also don’t feel like it’s a signal for all-okay.
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Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch
It's early to be sure, and in terms of what precautions to take, we should assume the worst (within reason), but in terms of my own personal psychology, I'm choosing to be optimistic!
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