Including nonCOVID admissions who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 would make severity among hospitalized look lower as suggested by this account from SA https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features … .
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Bottom line we are far from having evidence that severity is low enough to make this not a worry at the societal level, especially with already-stretched hospitals. Evidence that vaccines, especially when boosted, offer protection against severe disease is more consistent.
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Marc Lipsitch Retweeted
Already learning from the responses, thank you. Two sets of data suggesting modest contribution of "incidental" SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses among hospitalizations, one in Tshwane, Gauteng, SA https://twitter.com/enjoyingthewind/status/1472329401585045518?s=20 …
Marc Lipsitch added,
This Tweet is unavailable.2 replies 15 retweets 89 likesShow this thread -
Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Criostal Ó Conghaile
And one in London, UKhttps://twitter.com/cripipper21/status/1472328298025869314?s=20 …
Marc Lipsitch added,
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Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Prof. Christina Pagel
which shares this https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471900266811244547?s=20 …. A constant proportion of hospital admissions over time that are incidental SARS-2 findings vs. admitted for COVID is indeed consistent with similar severity per infection to the past variants, as
@chrischirp notes.Marc Lipsitch added,
Prof. Christina PagelVerified account @chrischirpHosp admissions by primary diagnosis show increase in *both* admissions for Covid and more incidental admissions (e.g. trauma or caught covid while in hospital for something else). This is consistent with no evidence that Omicron milder. Critical care already v busy. 13/18 pic.twitter.com/3lhVwG9Y4UShow this thread13 replies 22 retweets 117 likesShow this thread -
This presentation from yesterday is illuminating https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=e4Y2sXkt-cw … ht to a responder whom I can't find any more, twitter fail...
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Several lines of evidence here suggesting a lower hospitalization proportion than in previous waves, limited to first 25 days. Caveats 1) this is growing faster, so higher proportion of recent cases makes bias (missing not-yet-hospitalized) worse even when compare first 25 days
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2) the proportion vaccinated is going up, as is the proportion previously infected, so a more immune population. So hard to compare but declining in-hospital severity measures here as in Discovery Health are hopeful signs.
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Replying to @mlipsitch
I think given its age structure and high seropositivity from prior outbreak+infection, South Africa could only give us the signal to *really* worry, but not to relax. Asymmetrical in its ability to inform us. Denmark and UK, similar age pyramid but healthier and more vaccinated.+
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Replying to @zeynep
agree re age, though they have had numerous admissions in older age groups. Re seropositivity, less sure; we have high seropositivity too though more from vaccines
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Agree, but still… Much smaller numbers to begin with, very few older than 75, and likely healthier (survival bias). This is their pyramid *before* registering excess deaths equal to about 0.5% of their population. I just don’t feel like they can offer an exact answer to us.pic.twitter.com/G4pgvwE3Ga
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Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch
Survival bias!!!!! That is the great question!
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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